NBA PrizePicks Props vs. ETR Projections

In the below table, you will find a comparison between our projections and PrizePicks’ lines. Both will update continuously. Reminder that if you haven’t signed up for PrizePicks yet, use promo code ETR and this link to get a 100% signup bonus and access to “free” legs like Patrick Mahomes over one yard in Week 1.

Some tips for using the table below:

• Our mean projection is our average expectation for a stat category based on our projected volume and efficiency for the player. These are the same expectations that feed our fantasy point projections. Our mean projections serve as an initial guide, but please keep in mind a player’s median projection, what we’d expect them to achieve 50% of the time, is more applicable here. In general, a player’s median outcome is lower than our mean projections due to a combination of how player distributions work and outcomes that are a bit less predictable (like an in game injury).
• The two difference columns are there for ease of sorting and organizing the table. However, they aren’t by themselves indications of strength of bet. For example, a player who projects for 8 points and has a prop of 5 points will have a percentage difference of 60%, but there’s a lot of volatility there. Another player may have a points projection of 30 and a prop of 25 yards. The percentage difference is far less, but the latter would be a better OVER selection than the former.
• The implied outcome formula is to make it clear if our mean projection is over or under the prop. It’s there primarily for clarity purposes since our difference columns are absolute values. We don’t want you to mistakenly select the OVER because you see a raw difference of 35.6 when the projection is 74.4 points and the prop is 100 points (this is an UNDER).
• On PrizePicks, the Power Play is higher EV than the Flex Play over the long-term, though it comes with more short-term variance.